Optimism trap? Educational aspirations and outcomes among students with immigrant backgrounds in Norway and Spain

While immigrants and their children display bold educational aspirations, less is known about the relationship between their aspirations and educational outcomes. Using longitudinal survey data on students in upper secondary education in Barcelona, Spain, and Bergen, Norway, coupled with register data from Norway, we ask how the aspirations of students with immigrant backgrounds are connected to their educational outcomes, and in what way this differs between the cities. We find that, compared with their native peers, youth with immigrant backgrounds in Bergen have higher aspirations and those in Barcelona have somewhat lower aspirations. There is a higher mismatch between educational aspirations and outcomes for youth with immigrant backgrounds in both contexts. We argue that such empirical investigations are important, to avoid portraying immigrant aspirations as either a springboard to future success or as a ‘trap’, but rather as a part of pragmatic considerations and adjustments in varying contexts.