Estructura productiva, eficiencia energética y emisiones de CO2 en Colombia

Abstract

This thesis aims to determine and quantify the relationship between energy consumption, economic activity and CO2 emissions in Colombia in three self-contained chapters. In chapter one, factors explaining trends in CO2 emissions and energy efficiency for the period 1971 to 2010 are analysed. For this purpose, two decompositions are developed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index: one for CO2 emissions based on the Kaya identity, and another for primary energy consumption per unit of output or activity, measured at the sectorial level. Results show that energy intensity is the main factor explaining the decline in CO2 emissions and improvement in energy efficiency. Transport and manufacturing are the sectors with the largest reductions in energy intensity. Structural change in the latter sector also helps to improve energy efficiency._x000D_ In chapter two, the relationship between two environmental pressure indicators (CO2 emissions per capita and per capita energy consumption) and other variables (such as per capita GDP and the composition of the energy) is analyzed. Moreover, the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKC) is tested for these environmental pressures. A simulation method is used to estimate the income elasticity of energy and CO2 emissions. For these purposes, two partial adjustment dynamic models are estimated for CO2 emissions and energy for the period 1971-2011. Results suggest the existence of an EKC, with turning points for energy in 2006 and for CO2 emissions in 2011. These patterns point to a possible de-linking of economic growth and environmental pressure. The result reveals that changes in the composition of energy sources has increased energy savings and reduced CO2 emissions. Throughout the period, the income elasticity of energy and emissions presents a downward trend and fall to zero at the turning point of the EKC._x000D_ Chapter three, determines key sectors of primary energy consumption and analyses structural change in primary energy consumption in Colombian all sectors from 1995 to 2010. This is done using an input-output model applying demand and use of energy approaches. The first approach shows that technology best explains the decline in energy consumption, while its subsequent increase is explained by rises in demand. The second approach reiterates the importance of technical change in the reduction of energy consumption, while demand and the use of technology accounts for the increase in energy use. Estimated sectoral elasticities show that land transport and services are key sectors on which energy conservation policies should focus.

Date of Award	12 Dec 2016
Original language	Spanish
Supervisor	Vicente Alcántara Escolano (Director) & Emilio Padilla Rosa (Director)