Winners and losers of the Productivity Gains of the American Agricultural Sector

The aim of this study is twofold. First, to identify who benefited from the productivity growth of the American agricultural sector from 1960 to 2004. Second, to measure the relationship between changes in productivity, its distribution, and the evolution of variables linked with climate change. This study shifts the attention from the drivers of productivity change to how it is distributed. Our results show that the stakeholders of the US agricultural sector do not benefit equally from productivity growth. Moreover, it provides empirical evidence that supports the treadmill theory about how technological innovation pushes some farmers out of the market. Concerning the relationship between extreme weather variables (precipitation, temperature, and droughts) and the distribution of productivity change, this depends on the geographical situation of the state. Some stakeholders might be the winners of anomalous climate events in some regions of the US. These findings suggest that reaching a consensus on initiatives to stop climate change will be extremely difficult.