Usefulness of clinical and NT-proBNP monitoring for prognostic guidance in destabilized heart failure outpatients

Aims: To study the relative prognostic value of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) monitoring in addition to clinical disease severity scores (CDSSs) in outpatients with destabilized heart failure (HF). Methods and results: Seventy-one outpatients with recently destabilized HF were recruited. At baseline, and at all following visits, a CDSS based on Framingham criteria was obtained, and NT-proBNP levels were measured in a blind fashion. CDSS did not correlate with NT-proBNP levels at any time (P > 0.1), although their relative changes correlated during follow-up (P < 0.001). Forty patients (56%) had clinical events (cardiovascular death and/or HF hospitalization) within 1 year of follow-up. Changes in CDSS from baseline were not predictive of subsequent events (P > 0.1 for all visits), whereas changes in NT-proBNP levels were predictive at several time points: week 2 (P = 0.005), week 3 (P = 0.037), week 4 (P = 0.015), and 6 months (P = 0.026). A change in NT-proBNP levels at follow-up week 2 (%) added independent prognostic information (P < 0.001, HR 0.982, 95% CI 0.972-0.992) to baseline CDSS (P = 0.002, HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.290-3.266), age (P = 0.007, HR 1.034, 95% CI 1.009-1.059), and left ventricular ejection fraction (P = 0.013, HR 0.942, 95% CI 0.898-0.987). Conclusion: Serial monitoring for per cent change in NT-proBNP concentrations offers superior prognostic information to clinical assessment among outpatients with recent destabilized HF. © The Author 2008.