The role of innovative entrepreneurship within Colombian business cycle scenarios: A system dynamics approach

Sebastian Aparicio, David Urbano, Diego Gómez

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

26 Citations (Scopus)


© 2016 Elsevier Ltd Since the advent of public and private initiatives in Colombia, there has been interest in exploring the possible future pathways of the Colombian business cycle. Based on a foresight analysis, it has been identified on the one hand that it is necessary to achieve greater productivity and competitiveness and on the other hand, collective intentionality towards progress must be encouraged. Using these analyses, new Colombian scenarios are discussed, taking into account intentionality towards entrepreneurship and innovation. Following the entrepreneurship research, it is suggested that innovative entrepreneurial activity is linked to long-term economic growth. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to identify the role of innovative entrepreneurship in Colombian business cycle scenarios using system dynamics (SD) modelling. Here, we approach futures studies, testing dynamic hypotheses concerning development based on societal and socioeconomic integration, in which innovative entrepreneurship is highly relevant. The model, supported by circular flow analysis and Schumpeterian theory, shows how this type of entrepreneurship contributes to sustainable economic growth during the simulation period (2003–2032). To achieve a 6.77% average growth rate (the higher scenario), policies regarding knowledge transfer from specialized foreign individuals, incumbent firms and universities, as well as incentives for entrepreneurial societies and collectivism, are discussed.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)130-147
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2016


  • Business cycle
  • Colombia
  • Entrepreneurial activity
  • Innovative entrepreneurship
  • Scenario analysis
  • System dynamics


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