TY - JOUR
T1 - Targeting the search of African swine fever-infected wild boar carcasses
T2 - A tool for early detection
AU - Allepuz, Alberto
AU - Hovari, Mark
AU - Masiulis, Marius
AU - Ciaravino, Giovanna
AU - Beltrán-Alcrudo, Daniel
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Wiley-VCH GmbH
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - This study analyses the temporal and spatial distribution of found dead African swine fever (ASF)-positive wild boar carcasses from 2017 to January 2021 in affected European countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Serbia and Slovakia. During this period, a total of 21,785 cases were confirmed in 19,071 unique locations. The temporal analysis of aggregated cases per month evidenced that most countries located in southern latitudes showed a higher number of cases between January and April, whereas in northern latitudes there was no clear temporal pattern. The space–time K-function evidenced a space–time clustering in the ASF-positive wild boar carcasses, which was most prominent within distances of 2 km and within 1 week. A Bayesian hierarchical spatial model was calibrated to evaluate the association between the probability of finding ASF-positive wild boar carcasses and landscape factors (i.e. the presence of a path and paved road), land use and wild boar abundance. Results showed the highest likelihood of finding ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in areas of transition between woodland and shrub, green urban areas and mixed forests. The presence of a path and a higher abundance of wild boar also increased slightly the odds of finding an ASF-positive dead wild boar. In summary, this paper aims to provide recommendations to design a search strategy to find ASF-infected wild boar carcasses, which is a crucial activity in the management of the disease, not just for surveillance purposes (i.e. the early detection of an introduction and the regular monitoring to understand the epidemiology and dynamics), but also for control, namely the disposal of infected carcasses as a virus source.
AB - This study analyses the temporal and spatial distribution of found dead African swine fever (ASF)-positive wild boar carcasses from 2017 to January 2021 in affected European countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Serbia and Slovakia. During this period, a total of 21,785 cases were confirmed in 19,071 unique locations. The temporal analysis of aggregated cases per month evidenced that most countries located in southern latitudes showed a higher number of cases between January and April, whereas in northern latitudes there was no clear temporal pattern. The space–time K-function evidenced a space–time clustering in the ASF-positive wild boar carcasses, which was most prominent within distances of 2 km and within 1 week. A Bayesian hierarchical spatial model was calibrated to evaluate the association between the probability of finding ASF-positive wild boar carcasses and landscape factors (i.e. the presence of a path and paved road), land use and wild boar abundance. Results showed the highest likelihood of finding ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in areas of transition between woodland and shrub, green urban areas and mixed forests. The presence of a path and a higher abundance of wild boar also increased slightly the odds of finding an ASF-positive dead wild boar. In summary, this paper aims to provide recommendations to design a search strategy to find ASF-infected wild boar carcasses, which is a crucial activity in the management of the disease, not just for surveillance purposes (i.e. the early detection of an introduction and the regular monitoring to understand the epidemiology and dynamics), but also for control, namely the disposal of infected carcasses as a virus source.
KW - African Swine Fever Virus
KW - African Swine Fever/diagnosis
KW - Animals
KW - Bayes Theorem
KW - Serbia
KW - Sus scrofa
KW - Swine
KW - Swine Diseases
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85126298743&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/tbed.14504
DO - 10.1111/tbed.14504
M3 - Article
C2 - 35243800
AN - SCOPUS:85126298743
SN - 1865-1674
JO - Transboundary and emerging diseases
JF - Transboundary and emerging diseases
ER -