Street robbery around the Golden Line in Mexico City: A quasi-natural experiment between metro stations and bus stops

The literature on crime on public transport focuses on the specific elements that comprise urban transport, such as stations, stops, and vehicles. Studies have analyzed crime within transport stations, during the journey or passenger transfers, or around public transport stations. However, one area remains relatively unexplored: a comparison of crime levels between different types of stops. This study looks at bus stops and metro stations as crime generators/ attractors. Using systems of geographic information and geo-referenced data on robbery (2013–2016) in Mexico City, the study employs a quasi-natural experiment (the temporary closure of the Golden line of the metro and its replacement by a bus route) to analyze crime behavior in the areas around the stations/ bus stops. Our results indicate statistically significant changes in the frequency of robbery within 250 m (820.21 feet), 304.8 m (1,000 feet), 396.2 m (1,300 feet), and 500 m (1,640.4 feet) of the stations. Evidence shows that following the replacement of the metro by a bus route (with the same stops/ stations), the bus stops generated more crime in their vicinity than the metro stations. One possible explanation is that offenders choose bus stops over metro stations as they offer ease of access and less police control.