We analyze the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model when the transmission rate displays Gaussian white noise fluctuations around its mean value. We obtain analytic expressions for the final size distribution of infectives and the mean infected number of individuals. The model displays a variety of noise-induced transitions as a function of the basic reproductive rate and the noise intensity. We derive a threshold criterion for epidemic invasion in the presence of external noise and determine the mean epidemic duration and the mean epidemic extinction time. © 2012 American Physical Society.
|Journal||Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics|
|Publication status||Published - 23 Jul 2012|