© 2018 L'Association pour l'Etude de l'Epidemiologie des Maladies Animales. All Rights Reserved. In order to estimate the threat for France, a quantitative import risk assessment (QIRA) model was developed to assess the risk of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) introduction in France by imports of cattle. Based on available information and using a stochastic model, the probability of a first outbreak of LSD in France following the import of batches of infected live cattle was estimated to be between 4 × 10 -5 and 3.3 × 10 - 3 (in 95% of cases). This model can easily be adapted to different countries and to other diseases.
- Lumpy skin disease
- Quantitative import risk assessment (QIRA)
- Risk analysis
- Sensitivity analysis
- Stochastic modelling