Relationship between jumping to conclusions and clinical outcomes in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis

Ana Catalan*, Stefania Tognin, Matthew J. Kempton, Daniel Stahl, Gonzalo Salazar de Pablo, Barnaby Nelson, Christos Pantelis, Anita Riecher-Rössler, Rodrigo Bressan, Neus Barrantes-Vidal, Marie Odile Krebs, Merete Nordentoft, Stephan Ruhrmann, Gabriele Sachs, Bart P.F. Rutten, Jim van Os, Lieuwe de Haan, Mark van der Gaag, Lucia R. Valmaggia, Philip McGuire*, Tecelli Dominguez Martinez, Anna Racioppi , Thomas Kwapil, Manel Monsonet Bardaji, Lídia Hinojosa Marqués, M Kazes, C Daban, J Bourgin, Célia Jantac, Marie Odile Krebs, Dorte Nordholm, Lasse Randers, Kristine Krakauer, Louise Birkedal Glenthøj, Birte Glenthøj, Merete Nordentoft, Stephan Ruhrmann, Dominika Gebhard, Julia Arnhold, Joachim Klosterkötter, G Sachs, I Lasser, B Winklbaur, Philippe Delespaul, Bart P.F. Rutten, J. Van Os

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)


Background. Psychosis is associated with a reasoning bias, which manifests as a tendency to 'jump to conclusions'. We examined this bias in people at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR) and investigated its relationship with their clinical outcomes. Methods. In total, 303 CHR subjects and 57 healthy controls (HC) were included. Both groups were assessed at baseline, and after 1 and 2 years. A 'beads' task was used to assess reasoning bias. Symptoms and level of functioning were assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States scale (CAARMS) and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF), respectively. During follow up, 58 (16.1%) of the CHR group developed psychosis (CHR-T), and 245 did not (CHR-NT). Logistic regressions, multilevel mixed models, and Cox regression were used to analyse the relationship between reasoning bias and transition to psychosis and level of functioning, at each time point. Results. There was no association between reasoning bias at baseline and the subsequent onset of psychosis. However, when assessed after the transition to psychosis, CHR-T participants showed a greater tendency to jump to conclusions than CHR-NT and HC participants (55, 17, 17%; χ2 = 8.13, p = 0.012). There was a significant association between jumping to conclusions (JTC) at baseline and a reduced level of functioning at 2-year follow-up in the CHR group after adjusting for transition, gender, ethnicity, age, and IQ.

Original languageAmerican English
JournalPsychological Medicine
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2020


  • Functioning
  • Psychosis
  • Transition to psychosis
  • Ultra high-risk


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