Introduction: Liver disease resulting from chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection follows an asymptomatic course towards cirrhosis and its complications in 20-40% of cases. Earlier studies demonstrated that advanced fibrosis is a prognostic factor. The "gold standard" for the evaluation of fibrosis grade is liver biopsy. Our group validated a predictive index - NIHCED - based on demographic, laboratory parameters, and echoghraphic data to determine the presence of cirrhosis. Objective: our objective is to evaluate whether the NIHCED score predicts the presence of advanced fibrosis in patients with chronic HCV infection. Material and methods: this prospective study included patients with chronic HCV infection who underwent liver biopsy and were administered the NIHCED score. Fibrosis grade correlated with the NIHCED score using the ROC curve analysis and Spearman's correlation coefficient. Results: in total 321 patients were included (male/female ratio 1.27) with a mean age of 48 ± 14 years. Liver biopsy showed that 131 (30.5%) had no fibrosis or had portal expansion while 190 (69.5%) had advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. At a cut-off point of 6, sensitivity was 72%, specificity was 76.3%, positive predictive value (PPV) was 81%, negative predictive value (NPV) was 63.7%, and diagnostic accuracy was 72.5%, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.787, and a Spearman's correlation coefficient of r = 0.65. Conclusions: the NIHCED score predicts the presence of advanced fibrosis in an elevated percentage of patients with a need of liver biopsy. Copyright © 2009 Arán Ediciones, S. L.
|Journal||Revista Espanola de Enfermedades Digestivas|
|Publication status||Published - 1 May 2009|
- Advanced fibrosis
- Hepatitis C virus liver disease
- HIHCED index
- Predictive index