TY - JOUR

T1 - Probability estimation of a Carrington-like geomagnetic storm

AU - Moriña, David

AU - Serra, Isabel

AU - Puig, Pedro

AU - Corral, Álvaro

PY - 2019/2/20

Y1 - 2019/2/20

N2 - © 2019, The Author(s). Intense geomagnetic storms can cause severe damage to electrical systems and communications. This work proposes a counting process with Weibull inter-occurrence times in order to estimate the probability of extreme geomagnetic events. It is found that the scale parameter of the inter-occurrence time distribution grows exponentially with the absolute value of the intensity threshold defining the storm, whereas the shape parameter keeps rather constant. The model is able to forecast the probability of occurrence of an event for a given intensity threshold; in particular, the probability of occurrence on the next decade of an extreme event of a magnitude comparable or larger than the well-known Carrington event of 1859 is explored, and estimated to be between 0.46% and 1.88% (with a 95% confidence), a much lower value than those reported in the existing literature.

AB - © 2019, The Author(s). Intense geomagnetic storms can cause severe damage to electrical systems and communications. This work proposes a counting process with Weibull inter-occurrence times in order to estimate the probability of extreme geomagnetic events. It is found that the scale parameter of the inter-occurrence time distribution grows exponentially with the absolute value of the intensity threshold defining the storm, whereas the shape parameter keeps rather constant. The model is able to forecast the probability of occurrence of an event for a given intensity threshold; in particular, the probability of occurrence on the next decade of an extreme event of a magnitude comparable or larger than the well-known Carrington event of 1859 is explored, and estimated to be between 0.46% and 1.88% (with a 95% confidence), a much lower value than those reported in the existing literature.

UR - http://www.mendeley.com/research/probability-estimation-carringtonlike-geomagnetic-storm

U2 - 10.1038/s41598-019-38918-8

DO - 10.1038/s41598-019-38918-8

M3 - Article

C2 - 30787360

SN - 2045-2322

VL - 9

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

M1 - 2393

ER -