Predictors of depression at eighteen: A 7-year follow-up study in a Spanish nonclinical population

This study prospectively examined predicting factors and depressive antecedents of depression in early adulthood and determined differences by sex. 199 adolescents aged 11-12 from the general community were followed up annually for 4 years and reassessed at 18 years of age. Sociodemographic data, depressive symptomatology, anxiety level, personality dimensions, self-esteem, academic aptitude and pubertal development were reported throughout this period and tested as possible risk variables of depression. At 18, depression was diagnosed using ICD-10 criteria. Of the cases of major depression (MDD) at eighteen, 30 % had been diagnosed as MDD between 12 and 14 years of age. Of the cases of MDD at eighteen, 80 % had had depressive symptomatology between the ages of 11 and 14. Subclinical scores in the Children's Depression Inventory (CDI) were early indicators of long-term risk. Gender differences were found in the risk pattern; depressive symptoms were more significant in girls than in boys. In boys, early anxious symptomatology was a significant predictor. This study reports cross-cultural data that support a continuity of depression from adolescence to young adulthood.