Predictive variables for hard cardiac events and coronary revascularization in patients with normal left ventricular myocardial perfusion and systolic function

Background: The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of clinical, electrocardiographic and stress testing variables in predicting hard cardiac events (HE) and coronary revascularization (CR) in patients with normal stress-rest gated SPECT. Materials and methods: Included in the study were 2,004 patients (63.5 ± 12.5 years, 41.6 % men) with normal myocardial perfusion and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) >50 % on gated SPECT who were followed for HE (cardiovascular death or acute myocardial infarction) and CR. Results: During a follow-up of 4.3 ± 2.4 years, 33 patients (1.6 %; 0.4 %/year) had HE and 50 patients (2.5 %; 0.6 %/year) underwent CR. In a univariate analysis, age ≥65 years, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM), left bundle branch block (LBBB), and pharmacological stress were associated with HE. Independent predictors of HE were age ≥65 years (p < 0.001; HR 6.9), IDDM (p = 0.014; HR 3.4), and LBBB (p = 0.002; HR 4.6). In the univariate analysis, male gender, LVEF, known coronary artery disease (CAD), LBBB, and a positive stress test were associated with CR. Independent predictors of CR were known CAD (p = 0.016; HR 2.1), and a positive stress test (p = 0.006; HR 2.3). Conclusion: Age ≥65 years, IDDM, and LBBB are HE-independent predictors in patients with normal myocardial perfusion and normal LVEF on gated SPECT. The presence of known CAD or a positive stress test significantly increases the probability of CR during follow-up. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.