On a Discrete SEIR Epidemic Model with Exposed Infectivity, Feedback Vaccination and Partial Delayed Re-Susceptibility

Manuel De la Sen*, Santiago Alonso-Quesada, Asier Ibeas

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

A new discrete Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model is proposed, and its properties of non-negativity and (both local and global) asymptotic stability of the solution sequence vector on the first orthant of the state-space are discussed. The calculation of the disease-free and the endemic equilibrium points is also performed. The model has the follow-ing main characteristics: (a) the exposed subpopulation is infective, as it is the infectious one, but their respective transmission rates may be distinct; (b) a feedback vaccination control law on the Susceptible is incorporated; and (c) the model is subject to delayed partial re-susceptibility in the sense that a partial immunity loss in the recovered individuals happens after a certain delay. In this way, a portion of formerly recovered individuals along a range of previous samples is incorporated again to the susceptible subpopulation. The rate of loss of partial immunity of the considered range of previous samples may be, in general, distinct for the various samples. It is found that the endemic equilibrium point is not reachable in the transmission rate range of values, which makes the disease-free one to be globally asymptotically stable. The critical transmission rate which confers to only one of the equilibrium points the property of being asymptotically stable (respectively below or beyond its value) is linked to the unity basic reproduction number and makes both equilibrium points to be coincident. In parallel, the endemic equilibrium point is reachable and globally asymptotically stable in the range for which the disease-free equilibrium point is unstable. It is also discussed the relevance of both the vaccination effort and the re-susceptibility level in the modifi-cation of the disease-free equilibrium point compared to its reached component values in their absence. The influences of the limit control gain and equilibrium re-susceptibility level in the reached endemic state are also explicitly made viewable for their interpretation from the endemic equilibrium components. Some simulation examples are tested and discussed by using disease parameterizations of COVID-19.

Original languageEnglish
Article number520
Pages (from-to)1-35
Number of pages35
JournalMathematics
Volume9
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 Mar 2021

Keywords

  • COVID-19 pandemic
  • Delayed re-susceptibility (or immunity loss)
  • Discrete epidemic model
  • Feedback vaccination control
  • Transmission rate of the ex-posed
  • Transmission rate of the infectious

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