@article{4568ae77e5704f669fb5267bc67a0f1f,
title = "Monitoring and Analysis of COVID-19 Pandemic: The Need for an Empirical Approach",
abstract = "The current worldwide pandemic produced by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed the paradigm of mathematical epidemiology due to the high number of unknowns of this new disease. Thus, the empirical approach has emerged as a robust tool to analyze the actual situation carried by the countries and also allows us to predict the incoming scenarios. In this paper, we propose three empirical indexes to estimate the state of the pandemic. These indexes quantify both the propagation and the number of estimated cases, allowing us to accurately determine the real risk of a country. We have calculated these indexes' evolution for several European countries. Risk diagrams are introduced as a tool to visualize the evolution of a country and evaluate its current risk as a function of the number of contagious individuals and the empiric reproduction number. Risk diagrams at the regional level are useful to observe heterogeneity on COVID-19 penetration and spreading in some countries, which is essential during deconfinement processes. During the pandemic, there have been significant differences seen in countries reporting case criterion and detection capacity. Therefore, we have introduced estimations about the real number of infectious cases that allows us to have a broader view and to better estimate the risk. These diagrams and indexes have been successfully used for the monitoring of European countries and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic.",
keywords = "COVID-19, COVID-19 outbreak, epidemic monitoring, risk diagram, risk indexes",
author = "Mart{\'i} Catal{\`a} and Miquel Marchena and David Conesa and Pablo Palacios and Tomas Urdiales and Sergio Alonso and Enrique Alvarez-Lacalle and Daniel Lopez and Cardona, {Pere Joan} and Clara Prats",
note = "Funding Information: CP, P-JC, and MC received funding from La Caixa Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003. P-JC received funding from Ag{\`e}ncia de Gesti{\'o} d{\textquoteright}Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR), Grup Unitat de Tuberculosi Experimental, 2017-SGR-500. CP, DL, SA, and MC received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci{\'o}n y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. This work also has been partially funded by the European Commission-DG Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746. Funding Information: Funding. CP, P-JC, and MC received funding from La Caixa Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003. P-JC received funding from Ag?ncia de Gesti? d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca (AGAUR), Grup Unitat de Tuberculosi Experimental, 2017-SGR-500. CP, DL, SA, and MC received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovaci?n y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. This work also has been partially funded by the European Commission-DG Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Copyright {\textcopyright} 2021 Catal{\`a}, Marchena, Conesa, Palacios, Urdiales, Alonso, Alvarez-Lacalle, Lopez, Cardona and Prats.",
year = "2021",
month = jul,
day = "8",
doi = "10.3389/fpubh.2021.633123",
language = "English",
volume = "9",
journal = "Frontiers in Public Health",
issn = "2296-2565",
publisher = "Frontiers Media S.A.",
}