Modelling domestic water use in metropolitan areas using socio-cognitive agents

In this paper, we present an agent-based model for exploring the interplay of basic structural and socio-cognitive factors and conventional water saving measures in the evolution of domestic water use in metropolitan areas. Using data of Barcelona, we discuss three scenarios that involve plausible demographic and cultural trends. Results show that, in the three scenarios, aggregate outcomes are consistent with available conventional modelling (while total water use grows, per capita water use declines); however, the agent-based simulation also reveals, for each scenario, the different dynamics of simple policy measures with population growth, cultural trends and social influence; thus providing unexpected insights for policy design.