TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change
AU - Lotze, Heike K.
AU - Mellon, Stefanie
AU - Coyne, Jonathan
AU - Betts, Matthew
AU - Burchell, Meghan
AU - Fennel, Katja
AU - Dusseault, Marisa A.
AU - Fuller, Susanna D.
AU - Galbraith, Eric
AU - Suarez, Lina Garcia
AU - de Gelleke, Laura
AU - Golombek, Nina
AU - Kelly, Brianne
AU - Kuehn, Sarah D.
AU - Oliver, Eric
AU - Mackinnon, Megan
AU - Muraoka, Wendy
AU - Predham, Ian T.G.
AU - Rutherford, Krysten
AU - Shackell, Nancy
AU - Sherwood, Owen
AU - Sibert, Elizabeth C.
AU - Kienast, Markus
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Lotze et al.
PY - 2022/1
Y1 - 2022/1
N2 - The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change.
AB - The abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change.
KW - Climate change
KW - environmental archives
KW - future projections
KW - historical reconstruction
KW - marine conservation planning
KW - shifting baselines
KW - Climate change
KW - environmental archives
KW - future projections
KW - historical reconstruction
KW - marine conservation planning
KW - shifting baselines
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85138285640&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/8621f1de-88c6-30e1-8c6d-f5e068fcd504/
U2 - https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2021-0197
DO - https://doi.org/10.1139/facets-2021-0197
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85138285640
SN - 2371-1671
VL - 7
SP - 1142
EP - 1184
JO - Facets
JF - Facets
IS - 1
ER -