Is growth in consumption occurring where it is most needed? An empirical analysis of current energy and material trends

Background: Increasing global use of energy and materials is breaching planetary boundaries, but large inequalities mean that billions of people still cannot meet basic needs. Researchers have estimated minimum energy and material requirements to secure human wellbeing. However, it remains unclear whether countries with shortfalls in energy and material use are increasing their consumption towards sufficient levels, and whether countries with surplus consumption are reducing theirs to sustainable levels. Methods: In this empirical modelling study, we compared large datasets of national energy and material footprints with estimates of the energy and material required for each country to bring its poorest populations up to decent living standards (DLS). We then estimated the share of countries that are in shortfall and in surplus, for both energy and material consumption, and assessed to what degree countries are moving in the right direction, given existing growth rates. For countries with consumption shortfalls, we calculated the time it will take, at current growth rates, to reach energy and material use sufficient for DLS. Findings: The world currently uses more energy and materials than is required to achieve DLS for all (approximately 2·5 times more), even with existing within-country distributions (approximately 1·5 times more). However, 50% of nations currently have energy shortfall, and 46% have material shortfall. For most of these countries, growth in energy and material use is too slow to achieve DLS by 2050. Indeed, with current growth rates and national inequalities, at least one in five countries will remain in shortfall in 2100. By contrast, the growth rates of countries in surplus are four times higher than the growth rates of countries in shortfall, exacerbating ecological pressures. Interpretation: Currently, the world is not moving towards a just and ecological future for all. Growth in energy and material use is occurring primarily in countries that do not need it and is not occurring fast enough (or is declining) in countries that do need it. A substantial redistribution of energy and material use is needed—both within countries and between them—to achieve faster progress on DLS with less ecological pressure. Indeed, this redistribution is imperative if we are to achieve DLS for all while also achieving the Paris Agreement objectives. Convergence between the Global North and South is necessary but is not occurring fast enough. At current rates, convergence will not occur within the next 100 years.