TY - JOUR
T1 - Identification of inference fallacies in solid waste generation estimations of developing countries. A case-study in Panama
AU - Torrente Velasquez, Jorge Miguel
AU - Ripa, Maddalena
AU - Chifari, Rosaria
AU - Giampietro, Mario
N1 - Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021/5/1
Y1 - 2021/5/1
N2 - The absence of sound sampling procedures and statistical analyses to estimate solid waste generation in many developing countries has resulted in incomplete historical records of waste quantity and composition. Data is often arbitrarily aggregated or disaggregated as a function of waste generators to obtain results at the desired spatial level of analysis. Inference fallacies arising from the generalization or individualization of results are almost never considered. In this paper, Panama, one of the fastest-growing developing countries, was used as a case-study to review the main methodological approaches to estimate solid waste generation per capita per day, and at different hierarchical levels (from households to the country). The solid waste generation intensity indicator is used by the Panamanian waste management authority to run the waste management system. It was also the main parameter employed by local and foreign companies to estimate solid waste generation in Panama between 2001 and 2008. The methodological approaches used by these companies were mathematically formalized and classified as per the expressions suggested by Subramanian et al. (2009). Seven inference fallacies (ecological, individualistic, stage, floating population, linear forecasting, average population and mixed spatial levels) were identified and allocated to the studies. Foreign companies committed three of the seven inference fallacies, while one was committed by the local entity. Endogenous knowledge played an important role in these studies to avoid spatial levels mismatch and multilevel measurements appear to produce more reliable information than studies obtained via other means. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
AB - The absence of sound sampling procedures and statistical analyses to estimate solid waste generation in many developing countries has resulted in incomplete historical records of waste quantity and composition. Data is often arbitrarily aggregated or disaggregated as a function of waste generators to obtain results at the desired spatial level of analysis. Inference fallacies arising from the generalization or individualization of results are almost never considered. In this paper, Panama, one of the fastest-growing developing countries, was used as a case-study to review the main methodological approaches to estimate solid waste generation per capita per day, and at different hierarchical levels (from households to the country). The solid waste generation intensity indicator is used by the Panamanian waste management authority to run the waste management system. It was also the main parameter employed by local and foreign companies to estimate solid waste generation in Panama between 2001 and 2008. The methodological approaches used by these companies were mathematically formalized and classified as per the expressions suggested by Subramanian et al. (2009). Seven inference fallacies (ecological, individualistic, stage, floating population, linear forecasting, average population and mixed spatial levels) were identified and allocated to the studies. Foreign companies committed three of the seven inference fallacies, while one was committed by the local entity. Endogenous knowledge played an important role in these studies to avoid spatial levels mismatch and multilevel measurements appear to produce more reliable information than studies obtained via other means. (c) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
KW - Developing countries
KW - Estimation
KW - Inference fallacies
KW - Meta-analysis
KW - Multilevel analysis
KW - Panama
KW - Solid waste generation intensity
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85103693521&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/28f74057-151b-39af-9f66-918f285eadc8/
U2 - 10.1016/j.wasman.2021.03.037
DO - 10.1016/j.wasman.2021.03.037
M3 - Article
C2 - 33838385
VL - 126
SP - 454
EP - 465
JO - Waste Management
JF - Waste Management
SN - 0956-053X
ER -