Enhanced estimation of dam operation reliability

J. Estalrich, J. Trilla

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1 Citation (Scopus)


One of the major concerns of a reservoir manager is the probability of success or reliability in the fulfillment of the water demand. For such a purpose all the different management models that have been reviewed are based in a common procedure based on the optimization of a function, which does not include a direct measure of reliability, for getting a decision policy. This policy is used later on for simulation of the reservoir behaviour from which reliability is calculated as a performance index. None of these procedures can assert to arrive at the optimum in terms of reliability. In this work we focus in this point. We discuss a procedure that allows the direct optimization of the reservoir reliability. So, the final decision policy is optimal. No other decision policy can result in a better overall reliability. The procedure is illustrated with a real case and results are compared with those obtained from a commonly used different management model.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5-12
JournalIngenieria Hidraulica en Mexico
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2000


  • Reliability
  • Reservoir management
  • Standard operation
  • Stochastic dynamic programming
  • Stochastic lineal programming
  • Tranquera


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