En route to decarbonization: A periodisation of just transition in four carbon-intensive EU regions

In 2019, the European Commission launched the Green Deal to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, with the decarbonization of energy sources as one of its pillars. However, decarbonization is proceeding unevenly and is creating significant disruption, especially for regions that are heavily dependent on coal cycle activities. We do not know exactly how, when and why regional actors switch from resisting decarbonization to more adaptive, and transformative decarbonization strategies, and how to provide support for this process. This paper examines how four EU carbon-intensive regions respond to increasing decarbonization pressures, and periodizes the energy transition process in four carbon-intensive European regions. This work employs concepts from two strands of literature: phases of energy transition, and just transitions. For our analysis, we integrated two methods: interviews & focus groups, and national & regional press analysis. We could identify several ‘periods’ for each region's transition, characterized by different combinations and prevalence of resistance, adaptation, and transformation actions. Our findings suggest that (i) regions that have a clear plan for workers’ transitions with funding attached are at an advantage in progressing to further transition phases; (ii) when transition plans are subject to wide participation, the process appears smoother than with top-down processes; (iii) countries characterized by a less diversified power mix and a higher dependency on a single national resource tend to transition more slowly; (iv) regions that are faring economically better will not automatically be at an advantage in the transition if they have a powerful incumbent fossil industry.