Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents

Nerilie J. Abram, Helen V. McGregor, Jessica E. Tierney, Michael N. Evans, Nicholas P. McKay, Darrell S. Kaufman, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Belen Martrat, Hugues Goosse, Steven J. Phipps, Eric J. Steig, K. Halimeda Kilbourne, Casey P. Saenger, Jens Zinke, Guillaume Leduc, Jason A. Addison, P. Graham Mortyn, Marit Solveig Seidenkrantz, Marie Alexandrine Sicre, Kandasamy SelvarajHelena L. Filipsson, Raphael Neukom, Joelle Gergis, Mark A.J. Curran, Lucien Von Gunten

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    118 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    © 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)411-418
    JournalNature
    Volume536
    Issue number7617
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 24 Aug 2016

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