Cumulative COVID-19 incidence indicators should account for the population-at-risk dynamics

Pere Masjuan; Pere Masjuan; Sergi Trias-Llimós; Camilo Rojas; Arul Prakash; Pedro Gullón; Aurelio Tobias; Antonio López-Gay

doi:10.1101/2022.10.18.22281225

Cumulative COVID-19 incidence indicators should account for the population-at-risk dynamics

Pere Masjuan, Pere Masjuan, Sergi Trias-Llimós, Camilo Rojas, Arul Prakash, Pedro Gullón, Aurelio Tobias, Antonio López-Gay

Research output: Other contribution

Abstract

Risk estimators for COVID-19 propagation based on the incidence rate of new cases can be misleading as they usually fail to account for the fraction of population immunized by infection or vaccination.This misconception yields different incidence rates, as we illustrate using the daily number of COVID-19 reported cases in Spain during the pre-vaccine period, between 15/01/2020 and 11/07/2021. An increase in the incidence rate of about 7% is found when properly accounting for the population at risk. Our results demonstrate that accounting for dynamic changes to the immunized fraction of the population is necessary for accurate risk estimation. We hope that our findings can lead to more effective strategies for pandemic response

Original language	English
Number of pages	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.10.18.22281225
Publication status	Published - 20 Oct 2022

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1101/2022.10.18.22281225

Cite this

@misc{8de26d9b9ae44e988ffdce130b4244a0,

title = "Cumulative COVID-19 incidence indicators should account for the population-at-risk dynamics",

abstract = "Risk estimators for COVID-19 propagation based on the incidence rate of new cases can be misleading as they usually fail to account for the fraction of population immunized by infection or vaccination.This misconception yields different incidence rates, as we illustrate using the daily number of COVID-19 reported cases in Spain during the pre-vaccine period, between 15/01/2020 and 11/07/2021. An increase in the incidence rate of about 7% is found when properly accounting for the population at risk. Our results demonstrate that accounting for dynamic changes to the immunized fraction of the population is necessary for accurate risk estimation. We hope that our findings can lead to more effective strategies for pandemic response",

author = "Pere Masjuan and Pere Masjuan and Sergi Trias-Llim{\'o}s and Camilo Rojas and Arul Prakash and Pedro Gull{\'o}n and Aurelio Tobias and Antonio L{\'o}pez-Gay",

year = "2022",

month = oct,

day = "20",

doi = "10.1101/2022.10.18.22281225",

language = "English",

type = "Other",

}

TY - GEN

T1 - Cumulative COVID-19 incidence indicators should account for the population-at-risk dynamics

AU - Masjuan, Pere

AU - Trias-Llimós, Sergi

AU - Rojas, Camilo

AU - Prakash, Arul

AU - Gullón, Pedro

AU - Tobias, Aurelio

AU - López-Gay, Antonio

PY - 2022/10/20

Y1 - 2022/10/20

N2 - Risk estimators for COVID-19 propagation based on the incidence rate of new cases can be misleading as they usually fail to account for the fraction of population immunized by infection or vaccination.This misconception yields different incidence rates, as we illustrate using the daily number of COVID-19 reported cases in Spain during the pre-vaccine period, between 15/01/2020 and 11/07/2021. An increase in the incidence rate of about 7% is found when properly accounting for the population at risk. Our results demonstrate that accounting for dynamic changes to the immunized fraction of the population is necessary for accurate risk estimation. We hope that our findings can lead to more effective strategies for pandemic response

AB - Risk estimators for COVID-19 propagation based on the incidence rate of new cases can be misleading as they usually fail to account for the fraction of population immunized by infection or vaccination.This misconception yields different incidence rates, as we illustrate using the daily number of COVID-19 reported cases in Spain during the pre-vaccine period, between 15/01/2020 and 11/07/2021. An increase in the incidence rate of about 7% is found when properly accounting for the population at risk. Our results demonstrate that accounting for dynamic changes to the immunized fraction of the population is necessary for accurate risk estimation. We hope that our findings can lead to more effective strategies for pandemic response

U2 - 10.1101/2022.10.18.22281225

DO - 10.1101/2022.10.18.22281225

M3 - Other contribution

ER -

Cumulative COVID-19 incidence indicators should account for the population-at-risk dynamics

Abstract

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Cite this