Compensatory advantage after the first year at university in the Catalan system: between continuing, transferring and dropping out

Abundant research has shown the influence of social background on university dropout. However, there is little research that considers the different progression options for analysing the structure of the decisions that students make. This article explores the possible alternative decisions of: (1) continuing the initial degree course chosen; (2) persisting but transferring to other degrees or institutions; (3) dropping out of university. To this effect, we seek whether the decision structure follows a compensatory advantage pattern, according to which poor performance during the first year at university unequally affects students from low and high social backgrounds. The latter compensates for poor results by using alternative strategies to minimise the negative consequences. We analyse longitudinal data from a cohort of students entering any on-site university in the Catalan system in 2012–13 (n = 36909). The results show the importance of performance in predicting university progression decisions. No differences by social origin are perceived in the decisions to continue the same course of study, while differences are observed in dropout and transfer decisions which, for their part, follow a compensatory advantage structure. The results show the need to consider the interaction between performance and social background, and to broaden our view of students’ trajectories.