Coexistence of Abies alba (Mill.) - Fagus sylvatica (L.) and climate change impact in the Iberian Peninsula: A climatic-niche perspective approach

Abies alba Mill. (European silver fir) and Fagus sylvatica L. (beech) are Eurosiberian species dispersed over the Iberian Peninsula. Climate change predictions indicate a rise in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in this region, threatening the future existence of these species. In the present study we analyzed the future topo-climatic suitability of Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and the mixed forests of these two species, using the General Linear Models technique and data from the third National Forest Inventory (Ministerio de Agricultura PyA, 2007). We considered two modeling approaches based on niche theory: modeling community (Abieti-Fagetum) and overlapping individual species models. General trends showed an overall decrease in both species' topo-climatic suitability and indicated that the Pyrenees will play a crucial role as a climatic refuge. The modeling approaches markedly differed, however, in their current and future spatial agreement. Despite good accuracy results, community modeling through co-occurrence does not encompass the environmental space of individual species prejudicing future assessments in new environmental situations, suggesting a need for future studies in community modeling. © 2011 Elsevier GmbH.