Climatic Warming Increases Spatial Synchrony in Spring Vegetation Phenology Across the Northern Hemisphere

Qiang Liu, Shilong Piao, Yongshuo H. Fu, Mengdi Gao, Josep Peñuelas, Ivan A. Janssens

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearch

    15 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Climatic warming has advanced spring phenology across the Northern Hemisphere, but the spatial variability in temperature sensitivity of spring phenology is substantial. Whether spring phenology will continue to advance uniformly at latitudes has not yet been investigated. We used Bayesian model averaging and four spring phenology models, and demonstrated that the start of vegetation growing season across the Northern Hemisphere will become substantially more synchronous (up to 11.3%) under future climatic warming conditions. Larger start of growing season advances are expected at higher than lower latitudes (3.7–10.9 days earlier) due to both larger rate in spring warming at higher latitudes and larger decreases in the temperature sensitivity of start of growing season at low latitudes. The consequent impacts on the northern ecosystems due to this increased synchrony may be considerable and thus worth investigating.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1641-1650
    JournalGeophysical Research Letters
    Volume46
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 16 Feb 2019

    Keywords

    • Bayesian model averaging
    • climatic warming
    • spring phenology model
    • spring phenology synchrony
    • temperature sensitivity

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