The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations

Andrew L. Fanning; Daniel W. O’Neill; Jason Hickel; Nicolas Roux

doi:10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z

The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations

Andrew L. Fanning^*, Daniel W. O’Neill, Jason Hickel, Nicolas Roux

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Resum

La investigació prèvia ha demostrat que cap país actualment satisfà les necessitats bàsiques dels seus residents amb un nivell d'ús de recursos que es pugui estendre de manera sostenible a tots els habitants del món. Utilitzant el marc 'espai segur i just', en forma de rosca, analitzem la dinàmica històrica d'11 indicadors socials i 6 biològics en més de 140 països entre 1992 i 2015. Observem que els països tendeixen a transgredir les fronteres biològiques abans d'assolir els llindars socials. El nombre de països que sobrepassen els límits biològics va augmentar durant el període del 32-55% al 50-66%, depenent de l'indicador. Al mateix temps, el nombre de països que assoleixen els llindars socials va créixer en cinc indicadors (en particular l'esperança de vida i la matriculació escolar), va disminuir en dos (suport social i igualtat) i va mostrar pocs canvis en els quatre restants. També calculem projeccions 'com si res no hagués canviat' fins al 2050, que suggereixen que cal una transformació profunda per salvaguardar la salut humana i planetària. Les tendències actuals només aprofundiran la crisi ecològica sense eliminar les deficiències socials.

Idioma original	Anglès
Pàgines (de-a)	26-36
Nombre de pàgines	11
Revista	Nature Sustainability
Volum	5
Número	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z
Estat de la publicació	Publicada - 1 de gen. 2022

SDG de les Nacions Unides

Aquest resultat contribueix als següents objectius de desenvolupament sostenible.

ODG 3 – Bona salut i benestar
ODG 4 – Educació de qualitat
ODG 7 – Energia neta i assequible

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10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z

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title = "The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations",

abstract = "Previous research has shown that no country currently meets the basic needs of its residents at a level of resource use that could be sustainably extended to all people globally. Using the doughnut-shaped 'safe and just space' framework, we analyse the historical dynamics of 11 social indicators and 6 biophysical indicators across more than 140 countries from 1992 to 2015. We find that countries tend to transgress biophysical boundaries faster than they achieve social thresholds. The number of countries overshooting biophysical boundaries increased over the period from 32-55\% to 50-66\%, depending on the indicator. At the same time, the number of countries achieving social thresholds increased for five social indicators (in particular life expectancy and educational enrolment), decreased for two indicators (social support and equality) and showed little change for the remaining four indicators. We also calculate 'business-as-usual' projections to 2050, which suggest deep transformations are needed to safeguard human and planetary health. Current trends will only deepen the ecological crisis while failing to eliminate social shortfalls.Historical dynamics show that no country has achieved minimum social thresholds within biophysical boundaries between 1992 and 2015, and a projection indicates that no country is on the path to achieve them.",

author = "Fanning, \{Andrew L.\} and O{\textquoteright}Neill, \{Daniel W.\} and Jason Hickel and Nicolas Roux",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2022",

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doi = "10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z",

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T1 - The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations

AU - Fanning, Andrew L.

AU - O’Neill, Daniel W.

AU - Hickel, Jason

AU - Roux, Nicolas

PY - 2022/1/1

Y1 - 2022/1/1

N2 - Previous research has shown that no country currently meets the basic needs of its residents at a level of resource use that could be sustainably extended to all people globally. Using the doughnut-shaped 'safe and just space' framework, we analyse the historical dynamics of 11 social indicators and 6 biophysical indicators across more than 140 countries from 1992 to 2015. We find that countries tend to transgress biophysical boundaries faster than they achieve social thresholds. The number of countries overshooting biophysical boundaries increased over the period from 32-55% to 50-66%, depending on the indicator. At the same time, the number of countries achieving social thresholds increased for five social indicators (in particular life expectancy and educational enrolment), decreased for two indicators (social support and equality) and showed little change for the remaining four indicators. We also calculate 'business-as-usual' projections to 2050, which suggest deep transformations are needed to safeguard human and planetary health. Current trends will only deepen the ecological crisis while failing to eliminate social shortfalls.Historical dynamics show that no country has achieved minimum social thresholds within biophysical boundaries between 1992 and 2015, and a projection indicates that no country is on the path to achieve them.

AB - Previous research has shown that no country currently meets the basic needs of its residents at a level of resource use that could be sustainably extended to all people globally. Using the doughnut-shaped 'safe and just space' framework, we analyse the historical dynamics of 11 social indicators and 6 biophysical indicators across more than 140 countries from 1992 to 2015. We find that countries tend to transgress biophysical boundaries faster than they achieve social thresholds. The number of countries overshooting biophysical boundaries increased over the period from 32-55% to 50-66%, depending on the indicator. At the same time, the number of countries achieving social thresholds increased for five social indicators (in particular life expectancy and educational enrolment), decreased for two indicators (social support and equality) and showed little change for the remaining four indicators. We also calculate 'business-as-usual' projections to 2050, which suggest deep transformations are needed to safeguard human and planetary health. Current trends will only deepen the ecological crisis while failing to eliminate social shortfalls.Historical dynamics show that no country has achieved minimum social thresholds within biophysical boundaries between 1992 and 2015, and a projection indicates that no country is on the path to achieve them.

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DO - 10.1038/s41893-021-00799-z

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JO - Nature Sustainability

JF - Nature Sustainability

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The social shortfall and ecological overshoot of nations

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