The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate

TY - JOUR

T1 - The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change

T2 - ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate

AU - Watts, Nick

AU - Amann, Markus

AU - Arnell, Nigel

AU - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja

AU - Belesova, Kristine

AU - Boykoff, Maxwell

AU - Byass, Peter

AU - Cai, Wenjia

AU - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid

AU - Capstick, Stuart

AU - Chambers, Jonathan

AU - Dalin, Carole

AU - Daly, Meaghan

AU - Dasandi, Niheer

AU - Davies, Michael

AU - Drummond, Paul

AU - Dubrow, Robert

AU - Ebi, Kristie L.

AU - Eckelman, Matthew

AU - Ekins, Paul

AU - Escobar, Luis E.

AU - Fernandez Montoya, Lucia

AU - Georgeson, Lucien

AU - Graham, Hilary

AU - Haggar, Paul

AU - Hamilton, Ian

AU - Hartinger, Stella

AU - Hess, Jeremy

AU - Kelman, Ilan

AU - Kiesewetter, Gregor

AU - Kjellstrom, Tord

AU - Kniveton, Dominic

AU - Lemke, Bruno

AU - Liu, Yang

AU - Lott, Melissa

AU - Lowe, Rachel

AU - Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo

AU - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

AU - Maslin, Mark

AU - McAllister, Lucy

AU - McGushin, Alice

AU - Jankin Mikhaylov, Slava

AU - Milner, James

AU - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar

AU - Morrissey, Karyn

AU - Murray, Kris

AU - Munzert, Simon

AU - Nilsson, Maria

AU - Neville, Tara

AU - Oreszczyn, Tadj

AU - Owfi, Fereidoon

AU - Pearman, Olivia

AU - Pencheon, David

AU - Phung, Dung

AU - Pye, Steve

AU - Quinn, Ruth

AU - Rabbaniha, Mahnaz

AU - Robinson, Elizabeth

AU - Rocklöv, Joacim

AU - Semenza, Jan C.

AU - Sherman, Jodi

AU - Shumake-Guillemot, Joy

AU - Tabatabaei, Meisam

AU - Taylor, Jonathon

AU - Trinanes, Joaquin

AU - Wilkinson, Paul

AU - Costello, Anthony

AU - Gong, Peng

AU - Montgomery, Hugh

N1 - Funding Information: Lancet Countdown in 2019 The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change was formed 4 years ago, building on the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission. It remains committed to an open and iterative process, always aiming to strengthen its methods, source new and novel forms of data, and partner with global leaders in public health and in climate change. The 41 indicators presented in the 2019 report represent the consensus and work of the past 12 months and are grouped into five categories: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities; adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The data published here elucidate the ongoing trends of a warming world with effects that threaten human wellbeing. As the fourth hottest year on record, 2018 saw a record-breaking 220 million additional exposures to extremes of heat, coupled with corresponding increased vulnerability to heat across every continent. As a result of this and broader climatic changes, vectorial capacity for the transmission of dengue fever was the second highest recorded, with 9 of the past 10 most suitable years occurring since 2000. Progress in mitigation and adaptation remains insufficient, with the carbon intensity of the energy system remaining flat; 2·9 million ambient air pollution deaths; and a reversal of the previous downward trend of coal use. Despite this slow progress, as the material effects of climate change reveal themselves, so too does the world's response. 51 of the 101 countries tracked have developed national health adaptation plans, 70 countries provide climate information services to the health sector, 109 countries have medium to high implementation of a national health emergency framework, and 69% of cities have mapped out risk and vulnerability assessments. Health adaptation funding continues to climb, with health-related funding now responsible for 11·8% of the global adaptation spend. Finally, public and political engagement continues to grow, with heightened interest around the school climate strikes, the UNFCCC's annual meetings, and divestment announcements from medical and health associations. The last three decades have witnessed the release of increasingly concerning scientific data showing the importance of a reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions. Although the report discusses several positive indicators, CO 2 emissions continue to rise. The health implications of this are apparent today and will most certainly worsen without immediate intervention. Despite increasing public attention over the past 12 months, the world is yet to see a response from governments which matches the scale of the challenge. The role of the health profession is essential—communicating the health risks of climate change and driving the implementation of a robust response which will improve human health and wellbeing. With the full force of the Paris Agreement to be implemented in 2020, a crucial shift must occur—one which moves from discussion and commitment, to meaningful reductions in emissions. For more on funds divested from fossil fuels see https://gofossilfree.org Contributors The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international multidisciplinary collaboration that builds on the foundation work of the 2015 Lancet Commission on health and climate change, convened by The Lancet . The Lancet Countdown's work for this report was done by its five working groups, each of which were responsible for the design, drafting, and review of their corresponding indicators and sections. All authors contributed to the overall structure and concepts of the report and provided input and expertise to the relevant sections. Authors contributing to Working Group 1 included Nigel Arnell, Jonathan Chambers, Luis E Escobar, Ilan Kelman, Tord Kjellstrom, Bruno Lemke, Yang Liu, Rachel Lowe, Jaime Martinez-Urtaza, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh, Kris Murray, Fereidoon Owfi, Mahnaz Rabbaniha, Elizabeth Robinson, Jan C Semenza, Meisam Tabatabaei, and Joaquin Trinanes. Authors contributing to Working Group 2 included Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson, Peter Byass, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Robert Dubrow, Kristie L Ebi, Lucia Fernandez Montoya, Lucien Georgeson, Jeremy Hess, Dominic Kniveton, Mark Maslin, Karyn Morrissey, Tara Neville, Maria Nilsson, Maquins Odhiambo Sewe, Dung Phung, Joacim Rocklöv, and Joy Shumake-Guillemot. Authors contributing to Working Group 3 included Markus Amann, Kristine Belesova, Carole Dalin, Michael Davies, Matthew Eckelman, Ian Hamilton, Stella Hartinger, Gregor Kiesewetter, Melissa Lott, James Milner, Tadj Oreszczyn, David Pencheon, Steve Pye, Ruth Quinn, Jodi Sherman, Jonathon Taylor, and Paul Wilkinson. Authors contributing to Working Group 4 were Paul Drummond and Paul Ekins. Authors contributing to Working Group 5 included Maxwell Boykoff, Wenjia Cai, Stuart Capstick, Meaghan Daly, Niheer Dasandi, Paul Haggar, Hilary Graham, Lucy McAllister, Slava Jankin Mikhaylov, and Olivia Pearman. The coordination, strategic direction, and editorial support for this paper was provided by Anthony Costello (Co-Chair), Hugh Montgomery (Co-Chair), Peng Gong (Co-Chair), Nick Watts (Executive Director), and Alice McGushin (Programme Manager). The findings and conclusions in this Review are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, WHO, the World Bank, or the World Meteorological Organization. Declaration of interests The Lancet Countdown's work is supported by an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust ( 209734/Z/17/Z ). The Lancet Countdown covered travel costs for meetings related to the development of the paper. Ten of the authors were compensated for their time while working on the drafting and development of the Lancet Countdown's report (NW, AM, MB, JC, MD, PD, GK, LM, OP, and RQ). The work of MB was supported by the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder. The work of CD was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council, and the input of CD and RQ contributes to the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems programme supported by the Wellcome Trust's Our Planet, Our Health programme. The work of MD and JT was supported by the Wellcome Trust Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health project. RD would like to acknowledge funding from the Overlook International Foundation. HG would like to acknowledge funding from C & JB Morrell Trust Priming Fund. IH and TO would like to acknowledge funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Centre for Research in Energy Demand Solutions grant. The work of YL was supported by the NASA Applied Sciences Program. The work of HM is partially funded by the National Institute for Health Research's Biomedical Research Centre at University College London Hospitals NHS Trust. DP would like to acknowledge funding from the 2018 Australian Endeavour Research Fellowship. JT would like to acknowledge funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's OceanWatch and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and the support of Universidade de Santiago de Compostela Instituto de Investigaciones Tecnoloxicas and University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies. Acknowledgments We thank the Wellcome Trust, in particular Howard Frumkin, Madeleine Thomson, and Lukasz Aleksandrowicz, for financial and strategic support, without which this research collaboration would not be possible. While carrying out its work, The Lancet Countdown received invaluable technical advice and input from several individuals, including Heather Adair-Rohani (WHO), Susan Anenberg (George Washington University), Maximilian Bayer and Yuan Ting Lee (Hertie School), Andrew Benham, Patrick Chandler, Lauren Gifford, Jennifer Katzung, Marisa McNatt, Ami Nacu-Schmidt, David Oonk, and Jeremiah Osborne-Gowey (University of Colorado Boulder), Simon Bennett, John Dulac and Wataru Matsumura (International Energy Agency), Helen Berry and Anthony Capon (University of Sydney), Christopher J Boyer (University of Washington), David Briggs, Chris Freyberg, Jason Lee (National University of Singapore), Kimberly M Carlson (University of Hawai'i), Jinfeng Chang (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), Tim Colbourn (University College London), Rita R Colwell (University of Maryland), James S Gerber (University of Minnesota), Mario Herrero (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Thomas Kastner (Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre), Long Lam (Navigant), Gabriel F Mantilla-Saltos (Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral), Gerardo Martin (Imperial College London), Matthias Otto (Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology), Jonathan Patz (University of Wisconsin-Madison), Matthew Prowse (IBISWorld), Pete Smith (University of Aberdeen), and Bryan Vu (Emory University). SAK would like to acknowledge the support of the UN University Institute for Environment and Human Society. Administrative, policy, and communications advice was provided by Peter Chalkley (Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit), Andrew Child (Consultant), Tan Copsey and Paige Knappenberger (Climate Nexus), Rachael Davies (Consultant), Sarah Hurtes (European Climate Foundation), Hannah Jennings, Tanya Nour (University College London), and Jessica Beagley, Anjuli Borgonha, Laura Donovan, and particularly Marina Romanello (The Lancet Countdown). Funding Information: The Lancet Countdown's work is supported by an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z). The Lancet Countdown covered travel costs for meetings related to the development of the paper. Ten of the authors were compensated for their time while working on the drafting and development of the Lancet Countdown's report (NW, AM, MB, JC, MD, PD, GK, LM, OP, and RQ). The work of MB was supported by the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder. The work of CD was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council, and the input of CD and RQ contributes to the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems programme supported by the Wellcome Trust's Our Planet, Our Health programme. The work of MD and JT was supported by the Wellcome Trust Complex Urban Systems for Sustainability and Health project. RD would like to acknowledge funding from the Overlook International Foundation. HG would like to acknowledge funding from C & JB Morrell Trust Priming Fund. IH and TO would like to acknowledge funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Centre for Research in Energy Demand Solutions grant. The work of YL was supported by the NASA Applied Sciences Program. The work of HM is partially funded by the National Institute for Health Research's Biomedical Research Centre at University College London Hospitals NHS Trust. DP would like to acknowledge funding from the 2018 Australian Endeavour Research Fellowship. JT would like to acknowledge funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's OceanWatch and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and the support of Universidade de Santiago de Compostela Instituto de Investigaciones Tecnoloxicas and University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies.

PY - 2019/11/16

Y1 - 2019/11/16

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85074879744

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6

M3 - Review article

C2 - 31733928

AN - SCOPUS:85074879744

SN - 0140-6736

VL - 394

SP - 1836

EP - 1878

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

IS - 10211

M1 - 10211

ER -