Short run “rebound effect” of COVID on the transport carbon footprint

The COVID-19 pandemic completely transformed the mobility of cities. The restrictions on movement led to “empty cities” throughout the world, with some environmental effects in terms of clean air and the reduction of CO₂ emissions. This research considers how COVID-19 mobility restrictions have affected the carbon footprint of four medium-sized Chilean cities (Coronel, Temuco, Valdivia, and Osorno) that have environmental problems and are highly dependent on motorized systems. The study uses data from 2400 household surveys at three distinct times: pre-pandemic - T0 (winter 2019), the time of implementation of restrictive mobility policies to contain the pandemic - T1 (winter 2020), and six months later when those restrictions were gradually lifted - T2 (summer 2021). The analysis suggests that CO₂ emissions actually went up, declining in the winter 2020, but then increasing with the greater use of cars in the summer 2021 due to the temporary effects of commuting to work, ultimately reaching levels higher than the pre-pandemic values, known as the “rebound effect.”