Patterns of university progression and social inequalities: delving into complex trajectories in higher education

This article analyses the trajectories followed by university students throughout their degrees using longitudinal data from a cohort entering eleven on-site universities in the Catalan system in 2012–2013 (n = 30,392). The analysis is carried out in two steps. First, types of academic trajectories are identified and described using Group Based Trajectory Modelling, and each type is related to students’ final academic outcomes over a seven-year period. Then, the probability of students belonging to each trajectory type is estimated according to academic and socio-demographic variables, disaggregated by field of study, to detect inequalities and specific patterns across disciplinary areas. The results indicate that the most frequent trajectory is stable high achievers, though trajectories marked by academic difficulties are observed. Academic variables are the strongest predictors of trajectory type, while among socio-demographic factors, age stands out, reflecting the greater time constraints often faced by older students in relation to their broader life course, which can limit ability or willingness to extend their studies when difficulties arise. Gender also has an effect, while social background has a more limited role. Patterns are most marked in STEM, where even high-entry-grade students face greater challenges, and older students show a reduced tendency towards recovery trajectories.