Las poblaciones ibéricas de pino albar ante el cambio climático: con la muerte en los talones

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is one of the most widely distributed trees on Earth. Despite its huge ecological plasticity, many studies show that its capacity to resist drought is being overcome in several regions, particularly at the southern limit of its distribution in the Mediterranean basin. This paper summarizes recent work on the direct and indirect effects of drought on Scots pine in the context of climate change. More specifically, the following aspects are addressed: (1) what are the ecophysiological characteristics that explain the vulnerability of Scots pine to drought?; (2) what environmental factors determine the growth patterns of Scots pine and how have these factors varied over the last decades?; (3) what environmental factors explain the spatial variability in the demographic rates of this species (growth, mortality, recruitment) at different scales?; and (4) what are the likely impacts of more frequent droughts and forest fires? Overall, the results currently available suggest that the mid term viability of a substantial part of the Scots pine populations in the Iberian Peninsula is at risk if climate change projections become true. We conclude exploring to what degree the previous information can be used to identify the more vulnerable individuals or populations, and how could forest management be used to modulate the expected impacts.