Bifurcation analysis of the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach to contact-based epidemic spreading in networks

Alex Arenas*, Antonio Garijo, Sergio Gómez, Jordi Villadelprat

*Autor corresponent d’aquest treball

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Resum

The dynamics of many epidemic compartmental models for infectious diseases that spread in a single host population present a second-order phase transition. This transition occurs as a function of the infectivity parameter, from the absence of infected individuals to an endemic state. Here, we study this transition, from the perspective of dynamical systems, for a discrete-time compartmental epidemic model known as Microscopic Markov Chain Approach, whose applicability for forecasting future scenarios of epidemic spreading has been proved very useful during the COVID-19 pandemic. We show that there is an endemic state which is stable and a global attractor and that its existence is a consequence of a transcritical bifurcation. This mathematical analysis grounds the results of the model in practical applications.

Idioma originalAnglès
Número d’article112921
Nombre de pàgines15
RevistaChaos, Solitons and Fractals
Volum166
DOIs
Estat de la publicacióPublicada - de gen. 2023

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