TY - JOUR
T1 - A systemic overreaction to years versus decades of warming in a subarctic grassland ecosystem
AU - Walker, Tom W. N.
AU - Janssens, Ivan
AU - Weedon, J. T.
AU - Sigurdsson, Bjarni D.
AU - Richter, Andreas
AU - Peñuelas, Josep
AU - Leblans, Niki I. W.
AU - Bahn, Michael
AU - Bartrons Vilamala, Mireia
AU - Jonge, Cindy De
AU - Fuchslueger, Lucia
AU - Gargallo-Garriga, Albert
AU - Gunnarsdóttir, Gunnhildur E.
AU - Marañón Jiménez, Sara
AU - Oddsdóttir, Edda S.
AU - Ostonen, Ivika
AU - Poeplau, Christopher
AU - Prommer, Judith
AU - Radujkovic, Dajana
AU - Sardans i Galobart, Jordi
AU - Sigurðsson, Páll
AU - Soong, Jennifer L.
AU - Vicca, Sara
AU - Wallander, Håkan
AU - Ilieva-Makulec, Krassimira
AU - Verbruggen, Erik
PY - 2020
Y1 - 2020
N2 - Temperature governs most biotic processes, yet we know little about how warming affects whole ecosystems. Here we examined the responses of 128 components of a subarctic grassland to either 5-8 or >50 years of soil warming. Warming of >50 years drove the ecosystem to a new steady state possessing a distinct biotic composition and reduced species richness, biomass and soil organic matter. However, the warmed state was preceded by an overreaction to warming, which was related to organism physiology and was evident after 5-8 years. Ignoring this overreaction yielded errors of >100% for 83 variables when predicting their responses to a realistic warming scenario of 1 °C over 50 years, although some, including soil carbon content, remained stable after 5-8 years. This study challenges long-term ecosystem predictions made from short-term observations, and provides a framework for characterization of ecosystem responses to sustained climate change.
AB - Temperature governs most biotic processes, yet we know little about how warming affects whole ecosystems. Here we examined the responses of 128 components of a subarctic grassland to either 5-8 or >50 years of soil warming. Warming of >50 years drove the ecosystem to a new steady state possessing a distinct biotic composition and reduced species richness, biomass and soil organic matter. However, the warmed state was preceded by an overreaction to warming, which was related to organism physiology and was evident after 5-8 years. Ignoring this overreaction yielded errors of >100% for 83 variables when predicting their responses to a realistic warming scenario of 1 °C over 50 years, although some, including soil carbon content, remained stable after 5-8 years. This study challenges long-term ecosystem predictions made from short-term observations, and provides a framework for characterization of ecosystem responses to sustained climate change.
KW - Climate-change ecology
KW - Ecology
KW - Ecosystem ecology
U2 - 10.1038/s41559-019-1055-3
DO - 10.1038/s41559-019-1055-3
M3 - Article
C2 - 31819236
SN - 2397-334X
VL - 4
SP - 101
EP - 108
JO - Nature Ecology and Evolution
JF - Nature Ecology and Evolution
IS - 1
ER -
